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主講人：Prof. Masashi KAMOGAWA

Department of Physics, Tokyo Gakugei University，JAPAN

 

時　間：98年3月27日星期五 下午2:00

 

地　點：科四館S4-811

 

 

 

摘  要

 

Seismicity as a critical phenomenon has been actively discussed by many authors (e.g., Bak and Tang., JGR, 1989; Turcotte, 1997; Sornette, 2000; Rundle et al., RG, 2003; Keilis-Borok and Soloviev, 2003). It has been shown that seismic electric signals (SES) and EQs reveal dynamic evolution characteristic to critical stage when their time series is analyzed in the framework of natural time, which was introduced by the Varotsos' group (e. g., Varotsos et al., PRE, 2002). The possible usefulness of natural time analysis in predicting catastrophic events has been demonstrated not only for the subjects of our immediate concern, but also for other critical phenomena, including sudden cardiac death (Varotsos et al., PRE, 2004). We found the above properties of seismicity also before 2000 Izu-island swarm earthquakes (Uyeda et al., JGR, 2009). Furthermore, the natural time analysis in 1995 Kobe earthquake and 2003 Tokachi-Oki earthquake has been done without using SES data. In our analysis, the natural time analysis may be useful to detect the critical point before the main shock.
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